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Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate. There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Election 2008: State of the Race

The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow, the largest electoral margin since 1996. All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain. The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state. Download this map »

Polling News & Notes

Polling News & Notes is a regular update published by Rove & Co. highlighting overlooked trends and insights in polling, political demography, and election statistics.

Polling News & Notes: November 10, 2008

Democrats Make Modest Gains In State Legislatures.
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Polling News & Notes: November 7, 2008

Polls Nearly Quadruple In 2008.
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Polling News & Notes: October 30, 2008

Which Poll Was Most Accurate In 2000 and 2004?
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