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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
John McCain gained ground on Barack Obama in national polls this past week, and the same trend has begun showing up in state polls as well. McCain gained 11 electoral votes, switching Missouri from a toss-up to his column. McCain also cut into Obama’s lead in states where Obama had been ahead, closing the race to 7 points in Wisconsin (10 EV) and bringing the race to a dead heat in Virginia (13 EV). Obama still retains a significant electoral lead, however, with 260 votes to McCain’s 194 and 84 as toss-ups.
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