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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
The Electoral College is now the closest it’s been since June 10, with McCain picking up 27 electoral votes since last week by moving Florida into his column. Obama still leads McCain with 260 electoral votes to McCain’s 221 votes, with 57 as a toss-up. Obama’s lead also has slipped to just four points in several key battleground states, including Michigan (17 EV), New Mexico (5 EV), and Pennsylvania (21 EV), putting them on the cusp of becoming toss-ups.
Please note: To account for the growing number of polls as we approach Election Day, Rove & Co. will shift its methodology after Labor Day to only consider polls in a state within 14 days of the last poll, rather than the past 30 days.
Download this map »
Please note: To account for the growing number of polls as we approach Election Day, Rove & Co. will shift its methodology after Labor Day to only consider polls in a state within 14 days of the last poll, rather than the past 30 days.
Download this map »
