Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
A week of the GOP convention and the Labor Day holiday made for just a few polls over the past week. The only state to change classifications was Florida, where McCain’s lead slipped within the margin of error to make the state again a toss-up. Obama continues to lead with 260 electoral votes to McCain’s 194, and 84 as a toss-up, but note that the toss-up states are still in play for McCain — only in one of them (New Hampshire) does he trail within the margin of error. Look for more dramatic changes over the next few weeks as state polls begin to take the race’s new dynamics into account.
Please note: To account for the growing number of polls as we approach Election Day, Rove & Co. has shifted its methodology to consider only polls in a state within 14 days of the last poll, rather than the past 30 days.
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