Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
McCain’s bounce in the national polls has started to trickle down to the state level—he now trails Obama by 26 electoral votes, making the race closer now than it has been at any point since early June. Overall, Obama holds on to 226 electoral votes, while McCain moves up to 200 votes, and 112 votes are a toss-up, a new high. McCain picked up two states from the toss-up column, Montana (3 EV) and North Dakota (3 EV), likely putting an end to Obama’s efforts to target the traditionally Republican states. One bright spot for Obama is that a new poll in New Hampshire (4 EV) moved the Granite State from toss-up to his column. But the largest shift in the race came from two swing states that Gore and Kerry both won, Michigan (17 EV) and Pennsylvania (21 EV) moving from Obama to toss-up. It’s very difficult to see how Obama can get to 270 electoral votes without those states. Meanwhile, two other toss-up states, Virginia (13 EV) and Florida (27 EV) edged closer to McCain—he now is ahead by 3 points in both states. If McCain has another similarly favorable week, both may move to his column and give him an Electoral College lead.
Download this map »
Download this map »
