Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
John McCain now leads in the Electoral College for the first time since early June, with 227 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 226 votes and 85 votes as a toss-up. Florida (27 EV) switched from toss-up to McCain to give the Republican his lead. McCain drew closer in both Minnesota (10 EV) and Washington (11 EV), where he now trails by 5 and 4 points respectively, putting both states on the edge of being toss-ups. McCain has also expanded his lead in several red states, such as North Carolina (15 EV), where he went from a 5-point last week to an 11-point lead today. McCain’s lead may be a result of his convention bounce, or it may be a sign of real progress—only time will tell.
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