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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
Obama continues to slip in the polls following McCain’s convention bounce, as Wisconsin (10 EV) shifts from his column to toss-up. McCain now holds a 227 to 216 vote lead in the Electoral College, with 95 votes as a toss-up. National polls are now starting to show McCain’s lead may have eroded, however, so we may see Obama starting to pick up strength in the state polls as well over the next week.
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