Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
The volume of the state polls continues to increase — there have been 48 new polls released since the last Rove & Co. map on September 17th — but sometimes the net effect of averaging in new polls is to change the race less, rather than more. Some exceptions to that rule are Indiana (11 EV), which has flipped from McCain to toss-up based on three new polls, and the two states where the parties’ conventions were held, as Minnesota (10 EV) went from Obama to toss-up and Colorado (9 EV) went from toss-up to Obama. Minnesota and Colorado’s movement suggests that no matter the effect of party conventions on the national race, they have a significant local impact, though that effect may be temporary. McCain continues to hold a slim lead over Obama, with 216 electoral votes to Obama’s 215, with 107 as a toss-up, but if the movement toward Obama in national polls continue to percolate down to the states, we could see an Obama lead later this week.
Download this map »
Download this map »
