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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
Thirty-five new polls since Sunday have given back the Electoral College lead to Barack Obama for the first time since Labor Day. The Illinois Senator now has 211 electoral votes to McCain’s 189 with 138 as a toss-up, the largest number of toss-up votes yet. McCain’s slip was caused by Florida (27 EV) shifting from his column to toss-up, while New Hampshire (4 EV) also shifted away from Obama to toss-up. Still, the race remains extremely close — if all of the toss-up votes were allocated to the candidate ahead today in them, Obama would eke out a narrow 273 to 265 electoral vote victory.
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