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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
It’s too soon for the 29 state polls released since last Wednesday to reflect the post-debate political environment, but it’s clear that the recent economic news has been favoring Barack Obama. The Democrat continues to rise in the Electoral College, picking up 48 electoral votes from Michigan (17 EV), Pennsylvania (21 EV), and Wisconsin (10 EV) to bring him to 259 votes, his most since before the Republican convention. Both Missouri (11 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV) fell from McCain’s column to toss-up, leaving him with 163 electoral votes. 116 electoral votes remain a toss-up, but Obama now holds his largest lead over McCain since July 17th. With 36 days remaining before the election, each candidates has the time and ability to change the dynamic of the race – and I am confident that will happen several times more.
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