Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate. There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.
Election 2008: State of the Race
No change in the top-line Electoral College numbers for the race, but continuing good news for Barack Obama who holds a 259 to 163 electoral vote lead over John McCain in the Electoral College with 116 as toss-up. The 26 polls released since Sunday didn’t change any states’ classification, but Obama now holds leads within the margin of error in Ohio (20 EV) and Virginia (13 EV), and is tied in Florida (27 EV) and traditionally Republican North Carolina (15 EV), putting him on the cusp of going over the 270 electoral vote threshold for the first time since mid-July.
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