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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
Obama continues to expand his lead in the Electoral College, adding Virginia (13 EV) to his column while Colorado (9 EV) moves back to toss-up status. For the second week, Obama has more than 270 electoral votes, with 277 electoral votes to McCain’s 163, and 98 as a toss-up. Several other states that went Republican in 2004—Florida, Nevada, and Ohio—are also on the cusp of changing categories with Obama ahead by 2-3 points in each of them. These polls do not reflect any interviewing done after Tuesday night’s presidential debate, but McCain will need to change the trend quickly to begin closing Obama’s lead over the next three and a half weeks.
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