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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2008: State of the Race
Forty-six new polls over the past two days—nearly one per hour—have widened Barack Obama’s lead in the Electoral College. The Illinois senator now holds 317 electoral votes to McCain’s 157, his largest lead to date, with 64 votes as a toss-up. Obama has benefited from three polls showing him ahead in Indiana (11 EV), which flipped from McCain to Obama, while a poll showing him ahead in Montana (3 EV) was sufficient to shift that state from McCain to toss-up. Both states may come back to the fold for McCain in the race’s final week, but the Arizona Senator is fighting to keep or bring back states which have been reliably red in previous Presidential elections. One cautionary note: from here to the end, these Electoral College maps will be slow to reflect last minute shifts in opinion since they are based on an average of state polls over a two-week period.
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