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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
New polls in Pennsylvania show dramatically different results, as incumbent Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter is either ahead by 6-7 points (Research 2000, Quinnipiac), or trailing challenger Pat Toomey by 6-9 points (Susquehanna, Rasmussen). The net effect is to put Pennsylvania back in the toss-up category, along with California, where new polls show Republican Tom Campbell closing in on Sen. Barbara Boxer. Democrats are now projected to hold on to 50 seats, with Republicans at 47 and three races too close to call.
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