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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
Monday’s announcement by Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon (TN-6) that he will not seek re-election marked the seventh Democratic member to retire from a competitive House seat.[1] As the Washington Post wrote, Democratic Party officials and strategists are concerned the seven just may be the “leading edge of a wave” of retirements.[2] By comparison, only three Republicans from competitive districts[3] have announced their retirements. What does history tell us about the effect of the number of retiring incumbents on the majority party’s electoral chances?
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