Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
With the recent retirement announcements from Democratic Senators Byron Dorgan (ND) and Chris Dodd (CT), North Dakota and Connecticut changed to lean GOP and toss-up, respectively. Otherwise, light polling over the holidays meant no change in the remaining predicted Senate results; the only change is that Florida went from solid GOP to lean GOP because of new polls showing Crist only leading Meek by 6 points.
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