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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
No states changed categories as a result of Tuesday's elections, but the primary results in Kentucky and Pennsylvania have caused both states' races to narrow considerably -- polls show Paul (R) leading Conway (D) by 4 points in Kentucky, and Toomey (R) leading Sestak (D) by 4 points in the Keystone State. Until further polling is available, the map also assumes Sen. Lincoln (D) wins her primary run-off against Halter (D) to proceed to the general election.
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