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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
New polls in the wake of last week's primaries have led to a slew of changes on the Senate map. Pennsylvania moves from leaning Republican to a toss-up after new polls show Sestak (D) closing on Toomey (R), and despite a primary battle between Sen. Bennet (D) and Romanoff (D), Colorado also moves from lean GOP to toss-up. California shifts from toss-up to lean Democratic as new polls show Sen. Boxer (D) ahead of her prospective Republican opponents. But Washington becomes a bright spot for Republicans as new polls show the entry of Rossi (R) to the race against Sen. Murray (D) shifts the state from leaning Democratic to a toss-up.
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