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Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
New polls move Colorado from a toss-up to leaning Republican, while Wisconsin goes from leaning Democratic to a toss-up as new Rasmussen polling shows businessman Ron Johnson (R) within a point of incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Republicans are now projected to win 43 seats, with Democrats projected to hold 49, and 8 remaining toss-ups. This is the first time since we began tracking polls in January that Democrats are projected to win fewer than 50 seats.
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