Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
Fifteen new polls in the past seven days have only had a minor effect on the Senate landscape, as Florida moves back from leaning independent to a toss-up. Democrats are still projected to win 49 seats and Republicans 45, but the GOP could take back control of the Senate if they sweep all six toss-up races. Note: after Labor Day, the Rove & Co. forecast will shift from averaging all polls within the past 30 days to all polls within the past 14 days. This shift will allow our forecasts to reflect the increased volume of polling in the fall campaign season.
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