Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Ohio was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 1. States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective party. For states where primaries have yet to occur, the map uses polling match-ups between the candidates leading in polls among each party's primary voters.
Election 2010: State of the Race
California moves from lean Democratic to toss-up, and Florida goes from toss-up to lean Republican this week, giving Republicans their best position in the Senate since Karl Rove & Co. tracking began last fall. If the election were held today, Democrats would win 48 seats, Republicans would win 46 seats -- and the GOP would need to win 5 of the 6 toss-up races to take control of the Senate.
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