Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the map's release date (all polls earlier than that will drop off). For example, the map published on October 15 does not include any poll earlier than October 1, except if the latest poll in a state was conducted before that date (for example, the most recent poll in Vermont was taken on August 31). States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states between a five-to-eight-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as "lean" for that candidate; states outside the eight-point lead are allocated to the respective party. Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results.
Election 2012: State of the Race
Mitt Romney continued to build momentum in the latest Karl Rove and Company map, with four critical swing states moving in his direction: Ohio and Colorado moved to "toss up" from "lean Obama" status, Arizona moved from "toss up" to "lean Romney," and Iowa moved from "safe Obama" to "lean Obama." This leaves Mr. Obama with 198 Electoral College votes (down six from May 22) and 65 “lean Obama” (down 11). Mr. Romney has 98 Electoral College votes (unchanged from May 22) and 74 “lean Romney” (up 11). There are seven "toss up" states with 103 Electoral College votes up for grabs (up six from May 22), but recent polls already show Romney getting stronger in these and many other states. Additionally, it is important to remember there have been no polls in South Carolina since December 2011 and in Kentucky since August 2011, though most observers believe they are in Mr. Romney’s column. They have 17 Electoral College votes that will likely move to “safe Romney,” but today are in the “toss up” and “lean Romney” categories, respectively.
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