Polling News

Early Republican Midterm Enthusiasm Advantage

July 27, 2017

Early Republican Midterm Enthusiasm Advantage: With about fourteen months until the 2018 Midterms, Republicans – especially those who strongly support President Donald Trump – are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats and those who disapprove of the president.  Even though Democrats lead on most generic ballots tests, the sentiment has not translated into excitement among likely Democratic voters. 

A July 13th Washington Post/ABC News poll found 65% of Republicans and those who lean Republican say they are absolutely certain to vote in next year’s Midterms.  Even more promising for the GOP is that 72% of those who strongly approve of President Donald Trump say they are certain to vote next year.  Only 57% (-8) of Democrats / lean Democrats say they are certain to vote, while only 61% (-11) of those who strongly disapprove of the president say they’ll turn out in 2018.  The Washington Post notes that among those who did not vote in the 2014 Midterms, Republicans and Democrats are “about as equally as likely to say they plan to vote in 2018,” a possible sign that there are not yet many new Democrats driven to vote in the 2018 Midterms.

Republicans cannot count on Democrats staying home, however.  They must maintain an enthusiasm advantage to keep the U.S. House and Senate.  This means finishing the job on health care, tax reform, and the budget, thereby giving their voters reason to show up next year.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
April 26, 2018 |
Polling News
Americans are split, 48%-48%, on the “tariff – a tax – on steel and aluminum that is imported to U.S. from other countries”, that President Donald Trump announced last month, according to a SurveyMonkey poll published by the New York Times. ...
Placeholder polling news
April 19, 2018 |
Polling News
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll found Republicans’ standing on the generic congressional ballot has improved since earlier this year. ...
Placeholder polling news
April 12, 2018 |
Polling News
Americans’ views of the economy continue to improve, according to a Pew Research survey, with 53% now saying national economic conditions are “excellent or good,” a post-recession high.  ...
Placeholder polling news
April 05, 2018 |
Polling News
Fivethirtyeight.com took a stab at examining patterns in the special and off-year regular elections since President Donald Trump’s election to see if they show a path for Democrats to win in 2018.  Their findings provide reasons to be skeptical of much of...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance