Polling News

Drop-Off Versus Consistent Voters

September 21, 2017

The Pew Research Center contrasted “drop-off” voters (those 22-years old and older who voted in 2012 and 2016 but not 2014) and “consistent” voters (those 22-years old and older who voted in 2012, 2014, and 2016).

According to Pew, there are more consistent voters among men (47%), whites (80%), those 50-years old and older (36%, 29%), those with a college degree (39%), Republicans (51%), and self-identified conservatives (38%) than there are drop-off voters.  There are more drop-off voters among women (58%), blacks (15%), Hispanics (16%), voters 22-49 years old (20%, 34%), those with some college (33%), those with a high school degree or less (36%), Democrats (58%) than consistent voters.

Seventy-five percent of drop-off voters say “a person must vote in elections to be considered a good citizen.”  This type of get-out-the-vote message can be effective in turning out drop-off voters.  “Social pressure” messages delivered in mail pieces, phone calls, digital mediums, and other ground efforts that remind low-propensity voters that it is their civic duty to vote can increase Election Day turnout by several points.  Identifying drop-off voters and effectively targeting them has the ability to change the outcome of a close race.

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