Polling News

Key 2016 Obama-Trump Counties

December 22, 2016

Democrats are dishing plenty of blame for their presidential loss, but have not yet given much attention to the fact that they failed to persuade and turn out voters where they needed to win, particularly in Michigan (where Donald Trump won by 10,704 votes); Wisconsin (Trump won by 22,748 votes); Pennsylvania (Trump won by 44,292 votes); Florida (Trump won by 112,911 votes); and Ohio (Trump won by 446,841 votes).  If Hillary Clinton won just about 78,000 more votes to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone, she would have won the presidency.

By contrast, Republicans were able to sway voters to win counties in key states that went twice for Barack Obama.  There were four Obama-Trump counties in Pennsylvania (Chester, Erie, Luzerne, and Northampton) that gave Mr. Trump 326,607 votes (2,347 more votes than Mr. Obama won in these same counties in 2012) and four Obama-Trump counties in Florida (Jefferson, Monroe, Pinellas, and St. Lucie) that gave Mr. Trump 335,324 votes (7,002 more votes than Mr. Obama won in these same counties in 2012).

In Ohio there were seven Obama-Trump counties (Ashtabula, Erie, Ottawa, Portage, Sandusky, Stark, and Trumbull) that gave 259,318 votes to Mr. Trump; in Michigan there were twelve Obama-Trump counties (Bay, Calhoun, Eaton, Gogebic, Isabella, Lake, Macomb, Manistee, Monroe, Saginaw, Shiawassee, and Van Buren) that totaled 464,376 votes for Mr. Trump; and in Wisconsin, there were 23 Obama-Trump counties (Adams, Buffalo, Columbia, Crawford, Door, Dunn, Forest, Grant, Jackson, Juneau, Kenosha, Lafayette, Lincoln, Marquette, Pepin, Price, Racine, Richland, Sauk, Sawyer, Trempealeau, Vernon, and Winnebago) that gave Mr. Trump 263,634 votes.

2016 presents an opportunity for Republicans.  They have a chance to keep these counties and swing states in their column in future elections, especially if Democrats refuse to confront the true reasons for their loss.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
July 19, 2018 |
Polling News
Voter engagement is higher than it has been in any midterm in over twenty years, according to a Pew Research Center survey, with 51% of registered voters saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting in November’s elections. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 12, 2018 |
Polling News
Democrats must hold ten seats in states President Donald Trump won in 2016 (FL, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, MI, PA, MT, and WI) and pick up two GOP-held seats to win control of the U.S. Senate.  ...
Placeholder polling news
July 05, 2018 |
Polling News
Democrats’ response to Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement has been embarrassing.  The Left has been fear-mongering over the Supreme Court vacancy’s effect on every issue from abortion to healthcare. ...
Placeholder polling news
June 28, 2018 |
Polling News
Now, 56% of Americans say they are “absolutely certain to vote” in November’s Midterm, according to recent Gallup polling. ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance