Polling News

Third Party Spoiler

June 02, 2016

Together, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein took about 1.35% of the presidential vote total in 2012, somewhat short of Ralph Nader’s impressive 2.54% in 2000.  Some analysts speculate today’s presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees’ high negative ratings make 2016 a promising year for a third party candidate.  Judging by recent polling, they may be right.

The March 23 Monmouth University poll had Hillary Clinton at 42%; Donald Trump at 34%; Gary Johnson at 11%; and “Other candidate” at 1%.  Five percent were undecided.  The May 17 Fox News poll had Ms. Clinton at 39%; Mr. Trump at 42%; Mr. Johnson at 10%; and 3% undecided.  Ms. Clinton was at 38%; Mr. Trump at 35%; and Mr. Johnson was again at 10% in the May 23 Morning Consult poll while the percentage of those undecided was 17%.

Who is hurt the most by the strength of third party candidates?  Evidence suggests it is Mr. Trump.  He loses in two out of the three matchups where Mr. Johnson locks in at least ten percent, while Ms. Clinton loses only once.  If Mr. Trump wants to a better outcome, he will need to convince a significant number of undecided voters they should side with him rather than the alternatives.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
January 18, 2018 |
Polling News
This week marks one year since President Donald Trump’s inauguration.  ...
Placeholder polling news
January 11, 2018 |
Polling News
As the Washington Post pointed out, job numbers for President Donald Trump’s first year in office were not just good, but very good.  ...
Placeholder polling news
January 04, 2018 |
Polling News
A majority (71%) of Americans are hopeful about how the new year will go for them personally, according to a Survey Monkey poll reported by Axios. ...
Placeholder polling news
December 28, 2017 |
Polling News
Today Republicans are at the lowest standing a year out from a Midterm Election than they have been in two decades, according to CNN polling.  Only 38% of voters say they are more likely to support the Republican Party next year, while 56% say they are mo...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance