Polling News

A Look At The Senate Majority

September 22, 2016

As I wrote in last week’s Wall Street Journal, “Republicans may well hold the Senate—though it will probably come down to a few thousand votes, in a handful of states, and decided very late on election night.” FiveThirtyEight.com has just offered two measures of how important a state’s Senate race and its voters are. One measure is the “tipping-point chance,” the probability a state makes a difference between a Democratic or Republican majority. The other is “voter power index,” or the likelihood a voter in a state will determine the Senate majority.

On FiveThirtyEight.com’s list of top ten “tipping-point chance” states, North Carolina has a 14% chance of being the Senate majority tipping point, while both Pennsylvania and Missouri have a 12.3% chance; Nevada has a 11.8% chance; New Hampshire a 11.7% chance; Florida a 9.8% chance, Indiana a 4.3% chance; Illinois a 4.1% chance, Kentucky a 2.9% chance, and Ohio a 2.8% chance. On the “voter power index,” there is a 15.7% chance a single voter in New Hampshire will make the difference between a Republican majority and a Democratic majority; 10.5% chance in Nevada; 4.3% in Missouri, 3.2% in Alaska; 2.9% in North Carolina; 2.1% in Pennsylvania; 1.8% in Arkansas; 1.6% in Kentucky; 1.6% in Indiana; and 1.0% in Florida.

The two states where I disagree with FiveThirtyEight.com’s current projection are Indiana and Nevada. I believe Republicans are in better shape there.

A Republican Senate Majority is within reach, but it will indeed come down to several swing states and a few thousand votes. Organization and GOTV efforts, especially in states like Nevada that has a high “voter power index,” could make the difference between a Republican majority and a Democratic majority led by Chuck Schumer.

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
July 19, 2018 |
Polling News
Voter engagement is higher than it has been in any midterm in over twenty years, according to a Pew Research Center survey, with 51% of registered voters saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting in November’s elections. ...
Placeholder polling news
July 12, 2018 |
Polling News
Democrats must hold ten seats in states President Donald Trump won in 2016 (FL, ND, IN, MO, OH, WV, MI, PA, MT, and WI) and pick up two GOP-held seats to win control of the U.S. Senate.  ...
Placeholder polling news
July 05, 2018 |
Polling News
Democrats’ response to Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement has been embarrassing.  The Left has been fear-mongering over the Supreme Court vacancy’s effect on every issue from abortion to healthcare. ...
Placeholder polling news
June 28, 2018 |
Polling News
Now, 56% of Americans say they are “absolutely certain to vote” in November’s Midterm, according to recent Gallup polling. ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance