Articles

How Badly Will the Democrats Lose the Midterm Elections?

April 28, 2022
0acff97eff0e749882bc095e1eb1a1aa

Even Democratic strategists now admit the midterms will be disastrous for their party. “It’s going to be a terrible cycle for Democrats,” Doug Sosnik, one of the party’s best grand strategists, recently told the New York Times. The question is how big the calamity will be. A freeway pileup? Category 5 hurricane? Or Krakatoa with all the attendant consequences?

We can’t know for sure—the list of variables and potential influences is too long—but we can speculate.

Will Congress pass some version of Build Back Better using budget reconciliation? How about any other major initiatives? If so, will they affect public opinion? My view is no BBB iteration is likely to pass, but more military aid to Ukraine probably will. So will something on China, a bill funding various Covid-related purposes, some appropriations for the coming year (but not a budget) and odds and ends, but nothing that moves the needle politically.

Does the war in Ukraine create a rally-round-the-flag effect for the president’s party like John F. Kennedy got after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? The proximity of its resolution to the midterms allowed JFK’s Democrats to hold their House losses to four seats and gain four in the Senate. There’s been no sign of this happening for President Biden so far, and I’m doubtful it will.

Does inflation decline appreciably? Or will wages rise faster than prices? Either would soften the electoral blow for Democrats. I’m not an economist but I can’t see how inflation could fall dramatically by November. Mr. Biden spent too much on his American Rescue Plan and the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve waited too long to act, as if inflation would dissipate on its own.

Even Democratic strategists now admit the midterms will be disastrous for their party. “It’s going to be a terrible cycle for Democrats,” Doug Sosnik, one of the party’s best grand strategists, recently told the New York Times. The question is how big the calamity will be. A freeway pileup? Category 5 hurricane? Or Krakatoa with all the attendant consequences?

We can’t know for sure—the list of variables and potential influences is too long—but we can speculate.

Will Congress pass some version of Build Back Better using budget reconciliation? How about any other major initiatives? If so, will they affect public opinion? My view is no BBB iteration is likely to pass, but more military aid to Ukraine probably will. So will something on China, a bill funding various Covid-related purposes, some appropriations for the coming year (but not a budget) and odds and ends, but nothing that moves the needle politically.

Does the war in Ukraine create a rally-round-the-flag effect for the president’s party like John F. Kennedy got after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? The proximity of its resolution to the midterms allowed JFK’s Democrats to hold their House losses to four seats and gain four in the Senate. There’s been no sign of this happening for President Biden so far, and I’m doubtful it will.

Read More at the WSJ

Related Article

3d5ac0bdda3c1ed0d606cff5bd41a92c
October 09, 2025 |
Article
There’s so much happening, it’s overwhelming—for news junkies watching events unfold and for the White House trying to manage it all. ...
00a48e374a896626bf94161e12457fd0
September 25, 2025 |
Article
It looks as if we’ll have another government shutdown. On Friday House Republicans passed a continuing resolution to fund the government. In response, Senate Democrats demanded that the resolution extend Biden-era ObamaCare subsidies that soon expire. ...
D1cab95d81fde6d0a02f815b78ac93b8
September 18, 2025 |
Article
It has been a sad, sickening week for America. Our country witnessed a terrible event. A young man was gunned down doing what he loved—debating all comers on a college campus on behalf of his passionately held beliefs. ...
4cef5f0e9ca9889e328da780a78d0636
September 11, 2025 |
Article
Mike Rogers seeks to win the party a seat for the first time since 1994. ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance