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How to Read the 2025 Election Tea Leaves

October 23, 2025 |
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When ballots are counted across America in less than two weeks, the punditry will focus on the New York mayoral race and the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial contests. Knowing that these races could be predictive of next year’s midterms, who won and why will dominate headlines. But there’s another important question to ask: Compared with what?

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October 15, 2008 |
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In the campaign's final two weeks, voters will take a last serious look at both presidential candidates. The outcome of the race isn't cast in stone yet....
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October 08, 2008 |
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Tuesday night's presidential debate was good entertainment. Both candidates were animated and loose throughout a wide-ranging discussion. Sen. Barack Obama did well in Sen. John McCain's favorite format. Mr. McCain was more focused and sharp than in the f...
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October 03, 2008 |
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With respect, Jon misses the principal arguments for Sarah Palin. She is the governor of a state with an $11 billion operating budget, a $1.7 billion capital budget and nearly 29,000 employees; she's got more executive experience than any candidate for pr...
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October 01, 2008 |
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Conventional wisdom says tax cuts have lost their political power. "Cutting taxes has run its course," "America's great fever for lower taxes . . . has cooled," and "Republicans relied too easily on tax cuts," are among the assertions I've seen recently f...
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September 24, 2008 |
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Presidential debates are important — and the first debate is the most important of all, establishing an arc of opinion that persists unless jarred loose by big mistakes or dramatic events. ...
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September 17, 2008 |
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Be careful not to assign too much scientific precision to polls. They aren't as accurate as portrayed. But several different surveys at roughly the same time that show similar results are useful guides. So three trends in recent polls must worry Sen. Bara...
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September 10, 2008 |
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Of all the advantages Gov. Sarah Palin has brought to the GOP ticket, the most important may be that she has gotten into Barack Obama's head. How else to explain Sen. Obama's decision to go one-on-one against "Sarah Barracuda," captain of the Wasilla High...
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September 03, 2008 |
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Will Barack Obama and John McCain's picks for their running mates affect the election? I asked some leading political science professors what research on this topic revealed. Their answer: Running mates usually don't matter, but this may be an unusual ele...

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