Polling News

Midterm Independent Opportunity

January 25, 2018

Republicans have an opportunity to win over Independent voters and in turn, move the needle in key races around the country this November.  According to a Jan. 9 Quinnipiac poll, 66% of all voters say the economy is excellent (18%) or good (48%), while just 33% say it is not so good (22%) or poor (11%).  Among Independents, those numbers are 66% excellent (16%) or good (50%) and just 32% not so good (22%) or poor (10%).  Even a majority of Democrats (51%) say the economy is excellent (5%) or good (46%).

Republicans can appeal to Independents and even some moderate Democrats by focusing on the economy.  For example, 31% of Independents say tax reform is a “good thing,” according to a Jan. 18 Washington Post/ABC News poll, while the number who disagrees is under 50%.  Independents who see tax reform as a good thing and, consequently, the pool of potential swing voters, is likely to increase if the GOP can stay on message about the law’s benefits as they take effect in the coming months. 

Today, Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot 50%-39%, respectively, according to a Jan. 16 Quinnipiac poll.  Among Independents, Democrats are ahead 45%-37%.  If Republicans sway more Independents with messages and policies focused on the economy and taxes, there is a chance they can move the generic ballot, and ultimately the Midterm Election, in their direction.

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