There are just eleven days until the Iowa caucus, and every candidate is sprinting towards the finish line. As it stands today in the Realcleapolitics.com aggregate of 2024 Iowa caucus polling, Donald Trump stands at 51.4%, Ron DeSantis at 18.6%, Nikki Haley 16.1%, Vivek Ramaswamy 5.9%, Chris Christie 3.7% and Asa Hutchinson 0.7%.
Historic Comparisons:
On Jan. 21, 2016 (11 days before the 2016 caucus), Trump was in the lead at 29.0%, Ted Cruz was in second at 26.4%, followed by Marco Rubio 11.4% and Ben Carson 8.5%. The final results were Cruz 27.6%, Trump 24.3% and Rubio 23.1%.
On Dec. 23, 2012 (11 days before the 2012 caucus), Ron Paul was in first place at 23.8%, Mitt Romney was at 20.3%, Newt Gingrich at 17.3%, Rick Perry 11.8%, Michele Bachmann 8.3%, and Rick Santorum 7%. The final results were a shocker - Santorum in first (though it was not determined that evening) at 24.56%, followed by Romney at 24.53%, and Paul 21.43%.
On Dec. 23, 2008 (11 days before the 2008 caucus), Mike Huckabee as in the lead at 30%, Romney was in second at 24.8%, and John McCain third at 10.7%. Huckabee went on to win with 34.4%, followed by Romney at 25.2% and Fred Thompson at 13.4%.
The Bottom Line: No candidate in the last three cycles was ever near 50% in polling this close to Caucus Day – they were not former presidents, either. That said, candidates can over-perform and still make gains in the first contest–see Rubio’s over-performance in 2016 and Santorum’s surprise win in 2012. Candidates will be racing to do so in the next eleven days, hoping a strong message, organization, and focus on grassroots will close the sale.
