Polling News

The Early Vote Partisan Divide

October 17, 2024

A new NBC News poll finds over half of 2024 Election voters plan to cast their vote early this year, more than compared to previous elections. Of those, there is a distinct partisan divide.  

By The Numbers:

  • In Oct. 2022, 49% said they would vote early, compared to 47% who said they’d vote on Election Day. In Oct. 2020, 59% said they’d vote early compared to 37% who said they’d vote on Election Day. Those early vote numbers are higher, given the increased mail-in vote during the COVID-19 pandemic. Before COVID in Nov. 2016, only 41% said they’d vote early, compared to 32% who said they’d turnout on Election Day.  

  • Today 52% of voters say they voted early or plan to vote early, while 44% of voters say they’ll vote on Election Day. That’s a three-point increase in early voting from 2022, and eleven-point increase from 2016. 

  • Of those planning to vote early or having already voted this year, 40% are Republican and 57% are Democrat. Of those voting early by mail, 32% are Republican, 66% Democrat. Of those voting early in person, 47% are Republican, 51% Democrat. Republicans still hold the Election Day advantage (58%), compared to 37% of Democrats who’ll vote Election Day.

The Bottom Line: Election Day is no longer one day in November, and GOTV is at least a month-long process, not just a week or two. Campaigns now bank supporter votes early by helping those voters get to an early polling location or return their mail ballot, while also continuing to reach out and persuade moveable voters. Both parties must pay attention to both groups as they’ll decide this razor-thin election. 

Related PollingNews

Placeholder polling news
May 29, 2025 |
Polling News
The Cook Political Report reviewed The Catalist “What Happened” report and found Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss was largely a result of new and infrequent voters falling below 50% support for a Democrat presidential candidate for the first time in Cat...
Placeholder polling news
May 22, 2025 |
Polling News
One of the proposed Republican changes to Medicaid is to require able-bodied adults on Medicaid to work or look for work. ...
Placeholder polling news
May 15, 2025 |
Polling News
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined since his January 20 inauguration but so have the Democratic Party’s favorable rating.  ...
Placeholder polling news
May 08, 2025 |
Polling News
President Donald Trump’s approval on key issues is starting to decline, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.   ...
Button karlsbooks
Button readinglist
Button nextapperance