Many recent polls show President Joe Biden losing to Donald Trump. Conventional wisdom earlier this year would have said Trump couldn’t beat Biden, but the former president leads Biden today by three points according to the RealClearPolitics.com aggregate of national polling. Bloomberg took a closer look at swing states this month and found Trump has the lead there, too.
By The Numbers:
Forty-seven percent of voters in all swing state (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI) support Trump, while only 42% support Biden. Trump beats Biden by four points in Arizona, six in Georgia, four in Michigan, three in Nevada, nine in North Carolina, two in Pennsylvania, and four in Wisconsin.
Biden’s image is worse than Trump’s image in these states. Fifty-eight percent of all voters in key swing states hold an unfavorable view of Biden, while 53% have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Bloomberg concludes that Biden’s poor showing against Trump in swing states is driven by lagging enthusiasm within his own base, in particular with blacks and voters 18-34 years old.
The Bottom Line: Trump’s primary opponents have made the argument that he can’t beat Biden in a General Election. Numbers like these suggest otherwise. It isn’t necessarily because Trump is now a disciplined, inspirational leader, but rather that Biden doesn’t excite his base or keep swing voters in his camp amidst sky-rocketing inflation and turmoil abroad.
