Democrats have a serious problem moving into the 2022 midterm elections: enthusiasm. According to recent polling by NBC News, Democratic enthusiasm is underwater by double digits compared to Republicans.
Just 47% of Democrats hit the 9-10 level of enthusiasm, compared to 61% of Republicans. The 14-point gap is significant—the last time Republicans took the House of Representatives by gaining 63 seats nationwide, the gap was 17-points. There’s no silver lining for President Joe Biden now, leaving Democratic prospects looking grim and Republicans making big gains.
The lack of enthusiasm among Democrats is across the board, mostly impacting Democrats of color and black voters whose enthusiasm has fallen 21-points from last October. The enthusiasm of Biden’s base in the party – likely voters who supported Biden in the 2020 primary, have fallen by 17-points, as has enthusiasm among Democrats aged 18-49. Enthusiasm among West Coast voters has fallen 15% and among moderates, 14%.
This all adds to the momentum of Republicans, who will have a terrific election if they offer a narrative that amplifies the GOP advantage among Republicans and Independents and implement ground operations that use this enthusiasm edge to grow the Election Day support for their candidates.