Polling News

Republicans Gaining On Generic Ballot

April 19, 2018

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll found Republicans’ standing on the generic congressional ballot has improved since earlier this year.  Today, 43% of registered voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their congressional district, while 47% say they are voting for the Democratic candidate.  That is a four-point bump for Republicans from January, when those numbers were 39% and 51%, respectively.

These numbers are almost identical to this point in 2010, when Republicans took control of the House of Representatives.  In April of that year, Democrats led the Washington Post/ABC News generic ballot with 48% while Republicans sat at 43%.  In 2014, when Republicans took control of the Senate, the numbers were a little closer at this point, with Democrats ahead by just one-point, 45%-44%.

Republicans’ generic ballot position improved among most demographics, particularly among white non-college voters (54% in January to 60% today).  That – as well as President Donald Trump’s higher approval rating (40% today, up four-points from January) – have likely driven the GOP gains on the generic ballot.  If Republicans can compete with Democratic enthusiasm (both parties are now tied for voters “likely to vote,” at 68% each), they could be in a reasonable position for this November.

 

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