Polling News

A recent poll from the Pew Research Center found that if the election were held today, most voters who turned out in 2020 would show up for the same candidate in 2024, while voter discouragement with both candidates continues to be a problem for both Biden and Trump. 

By The Numbers:
 

• Among 2020 voters, majorities of those who cast ballots for Biden (91%) and Trump (94%) support their 2020 candidate this year. The race is within the margin of error with those who did not vote in 2020: 48% back Trump, while 46% support Biden.
   
• Nearly two-thirds of voters have little or no confidence (65%) that Biden is physically fit to do the job. Nearly the same (59%) believe Trump is not ethically fit hold office. 
   
• Forty-nine percent of all voters want both Biden and Trump replaced on the ballot. Sixteen percent say replace Biden, keep Trump, and 18% say replace Trump, keep Biden. Of Trump supporters, 35% say replace both. Of Biden supporters, 62% say replace both. 
   

The Bottom Line: Many voters who turned out in 2020 are putting on the same jerseys for 2024. Without different options, they’re sticking with their choice from four years ago. That many cause both candidates to focus more on persuading new voters or those who didn’t turn out in 2020 or reinforcing those who’ve already defected from their 2020 choice. However, all that still may not be enough. Peeling off lukewarm backers of the other guy from 2020–convincing them to change their vote in 2024–will be a heavier life, but necessary for victory in November.