The Cook Political Report reviewed The Catalist “What Happened” report and found Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss was largely a result of new and infrequent voters falling below 50% support for a Democrat presidential candidate for the first time in Catalist’s tracking. The 2012 Obama Coalition–a younger, more diverse electorate–was friendlier to Donald Trump than any other GOP presidential nominee.
By The Numbers:
The youngest group of voters made up 36% of the electorate in 2024–up from 18% in 2012. The oldest group of voters made up only 39%, down from 57% in 2012. Overall, the youngest voting block (18-29 years old) shifted six points to the right from 2020.
Men shifted to right in a big way (six-point shift overall). That includes Latino men (12-point shift to the right), black men (seven-point shift) and AAPI men (six-point shift).
While white married women were the only group to shift to the left (by only one point), women over all did not rally around Harris as Latina women shifted seven points to the right and AAPI women shifted four points to the right.
The Bottom Line: Even though the 2024 electorate looked more favorably to a generic Democrat presidential nominee, Harris underperformed President Joe Biden with the Obama coalition of young and diverse voters. She also underperformed Biden with new voters as well as frequent presidential election voters. Democrats are reportedly spending millions of dollars to try to understand where they went wrong in 2024. However, these numbers show, their challenges won’t be solved with a single overpriced focus group.
