A new CBS News/YouGov Battleground tracker finds control of the U.S. House of Representatives is a toss-up, with a projection of 219 Democrat seats to 216 Republican seats. The model is based on a large national survey of voters in all 435 districts, concentrated in the competitive House districts, with voter preferences, district-level elements, demography, enthusiasm and what drives voters’ decision factored in.
The Battleground Tracker found a majority of voters believe this year’s Midterm is as important as a Presidential election, with more Democrats (28%) than Republicans (14%) holding this view. However, Democrats are not nearly as motivated to support their party and policies as Republicans are motivated to support President Trump and GOP policies.
Democrats are split on what drives their vote. Fifty-one percent of those supporting a Democrat say their vote “is mostly for the Democratic Party,” while 49% say their vote “is mostly against Trump and the Republican Party.” Seventy-three percent of Republicans say their vote for a Republican is “mostly for Trump and the Republican Party,” while just 27% say their vote is “mostly against the Democratic Party.”
Can Democrats win the House by relying on dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration and Republicans? Perhaps, but that may leave the outcome dependent upon GOP enthusiasm and the ability of Republican candidates to attract independents. With three-fourths of Republican voters positively driven to support their party’s policies, Republicans may be able to swing the House by delivering on promises and promoting policies important to the American people, not simply counting on bashing their opposition, like Democrats are.