Pew Research Center recently released its analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election. It found President Donald Trump’s 2024 coalition to be racially and ethnically diverse, as well as deeply rooted in his rural and non-college educated base. While this provides good lessons for future elections and an evolving sustainable Republican coalition, what was even more urgent information for both parties was Pew’s findings on the pattern of frequent voters.
By The Numbers:
Sixty-four percent of 2024 voters voted in the 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections. Of those, 50% broke for Trump and 48% went for Kamala Harris. Fifty-two of those were Republican/lean Republican and 47% were Democrat/lean Democrat.
Twenty-two percent of 2024 voters voted in the 2020 and 2024 elections. Trump won 47% of those voters to Harris’s 51%. They were 48% GOP/51% Democrat.
Twelve percent of 2024 voters voted in just the 2024 election. Trump performed best with this group, garnering 55% to Harris’s 41%. They were 54% GOP and 43% Democrat.
The Bottom Line: As Pew notes, most Americans are not regular voters. Overall, just 41% of Americans voted in the 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections. The 12% of 2024 voters who showed up for the first time deserves special attention, particularly going into the 2026 Midterm Elections. It will not be enough to say these voters will show up for a candidate because he or she is endorsed by Trump, nor can Republicans assume these voters will break lifelong voting habits because they receive a piece of mail about legislation with a picture of Trump on it. Smart campaigns will do the hard work of identifying and analyzing these voters on a district-by-district case, not a one-size-fits all approach, to ensure candidates – especially those in purple districts and states – understand what priorities these voters have, what message they need to hear, and on what medium they need to hear it. Only through that hard work will the GOP be able to convert a percentage of these Trump-only voters into sustainable, reliable members of the Republican Party.
