Before offering my predictions for 2026, let’s review my score for 2025. I had about 56% right, 42% wrong, 2%—one prediction—to be determined.
What did I get right? Deportation of violent, criminal illegal aliens was popular. Targeting aliens who had otherwise kept their noses clean wasn’t. State and local governments threw up roadblocks to both.
Mike Johnson was re-elected House speaker, not without drama. President Trump and GOP congressional leaders negotiated with Democrats to avoid a spring shutdown. Elon Musk’s much ballyhooed DOGE cuts came up well short of its $2 trillion goal. The president, Mr. Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy fell out.
There was no Ukrainian cease-fire. Friedrich Merz became German chancellor. Canada isn’t a state. Denmark didn’t cede Greenland. The Panama Canal remains Panamanian.
Inflation slowed, from 2.9% to 2.7%. Artificial intelligence is transforming medicine. NASA launched its new space-based observatory, SPHEREx.
Josh Allen was NFL MVP, Jayden Daniels offensive rookie of the year; Aaron Rodgers didn’t return to the Jets, and the Chiefs didn’t win the Super Bowl.
Two of my predictions were half right. Justin Trudeau isn’t Canada’s prime minister, but the Conservatives didn’t beat him. His Liberal Party pushed him out and staved off defeat. Mr. Trump used tariffs to get concessions on trade, immigration and defense from more than a dozen countries. But he slapped tariffs on many other nations, often seemingly for the heck of it.
My incorrect predictions: Congress passed one reconciliation package, not two. Mr. Trump didn’t lose any controversial cabinet confirmation fights. He got tax breaks on tips, overtime and Social Security. Twenty-five Republicans didn’t vote against raising the debt ceiling, though I’m sure they wanted to.
The Supreme Court didn’t issue an opinion on birthright citizenship. No justice retired. Republicans lost the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania state supreme court races.
There was no Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord. Benjamin Netanyahu is still in office. Tariffs appear on track to produce more than 2.5% of federal revenue, albeit barely. The S&P 500 did better than I anticipated.
My Oscar picks were a bust. “Wicked” didn’t win best picture, Ralph Fiennes best actor or Denzel Washington best supporting actor.
Still undecided: whether 2025 gross domestic product growth was greater than 2024’s 2.8%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says it’ll be 3%. Hope he’s right.
What does my 2026 crystal ball say? The House goes Democratic; the Senate remains Republican. The GOP breaks even on governorships. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro emerges as the 2028 Democratic hopeful who most helped himself. The MAGA civil war grows.
The Supreme Court affirms birthright citizenship, allows political parties to raise unlimited contribution, and rules against Mr. Trump on tariffs. He imposes new ones based on different authorities, some limited in duration or requiring congressional approval. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is renewed with modest changes.
The House approves a majority of appropriations bills under regular order. Congress keeps the government running after Jan. 30 with a continuing resolution and no significant shutdown. Congress overrides a Trump veto.
Americans don’t get a $2,000 tariff rebate. Republicans can’t pass major healthcare reform. Inflation stays above 2% and GDP grows less than in 2025. The S&P 500 rises less than half of 2025’s increase.
