As Inauguration Day approaches, most soon-to-be presidents feel the wind is at their back. That’s certainly true for Donald Trump after one of the most spectacular comebacks in American politics.
Mr. Trump outpolled his opponent in the popular vote in 2024, the first Republican to do so in 20 years, and carried the Electoral College 312-226. Foreign leaders now flock to Mar-a-Lago as if he were already back in the White House. Captains of industry and Silicon Valley titans vie for dinner invites. Energetic and engaged, he has dominated the media.
Mr. Trump rapidly announced his cabinet and much of the subcabinet. He assembled a White House staff more businesslike and less exotic than last time, though there are plenty of potential troublemakers throughout his administration. He’s likely to achieve early successes with executive orders on border security, on energy and on rolling back President Biden’s tidal wave of last-minute regulations.
But uncomfortable realities await. However impressive Mr. Trump’s victory was, he won a plurality—not a majority—of the popular vote with a margin of only 1.5 percentage points. Our politics remain deeply polarized. The GOP’s paper-thin House margin makes passing important legislation difficult. Mr. Trump needs Senate Democratic votes to reform our broken immigration system. Renewing his 2017 tax cuts will probably take until at least the fall. And some problematic key appointments could flame out in confirmation hearings.
That isn’t all. Expectations for his international success are already too high. Mr. Trump can’t end the Russia-Ukraine war “in a day,” as he claimed during the campaign. Given Vladimir Putin’s imperialist designs, stopping it on favorable terms for the U.S. and Ukraine will be enormously difficult. Mr. Trump’s threat that “all hell will break out” if Hamas didn’t release its hostages before his inauguration may have contributed to Wednesday’s apparent deal between Israel and the terror group. But Mr. Biden and his team will rightly claim partial credit.
Mr. Trump’s provocative comments on gaining territory from Greenland, Canada and Panama are needless diversions. Americans elected him to end inflation, seal the border, restore our military strength and end the “woke war” waged by progressives, not to prioritize wheeling and dealing with Denmark, granting our northern neighbor unwanted statehood or taking back the Panama Canal.
While Mr. Trump’s favorable numbers have improved since the election by almost three points, he’s still upside down, with 46.8% of public opinion favorable and 47.5% unfavorable in the 538 polling average. Contrast that with the last couple of two-term presidents. Before his second inaugural, George W. Bush was at 51% favorable, 46% unfavorable in Gallup’s Jan. 16, 2005, poll. Barack Obama was at 50% favorable, 43% unfavorable in Gallup polling ending on Jan. 20, 2013.
Mr. Trump won more because of his opponents’ mistakes than his own popularity. Kamala Harris was too far left and virtually indistinguishable from the deeply unpopular Mr. Biden, so voters who harbored doubts about Mr. Trump nonetheless concluded they desperately wanted change. But Mr. Trump has an opportunity to solidify these reluctant supporters—and even convert some critics—if he delivers a strong Inaugural Address and sets an optimistic tone in his second term’s opening weeks.
Americans want Mr. Trump to talk about hope rather than carnage, about bringing the country together to overcome important challenges rather than dividing it over petty issues and threats of retribution. They want more of the comity they saw as he and Mr. Obama exchanged pleasantries at Jimmy Carter’s funeral last week. Reportedly Messrs. Trump, Obama, Biden, Bush and Clinton had a pleasant half-hour in the green room before the National Cathedral service. It would do Mr. Trump much good if the nation saw that spirit in public next week.
