The GOP avoided disaster Tuesday in the special election to fill the Tennessee congressional seat left vacant by Republican Mark Green’s resignation. But the results should be a wake-up call for the party.
Former Tennessee General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps beat state Rep. Aftyn Behn by about 9 points, with the Democrat pulling 45% of the vote. That’s a lot narrower than the 22-point margin by which President Trump carried the district last fall and the 21-point margin by which Mr. Green was re-elected.
By all accounts, the problem wasn’t Mr. Van Epps—a capable, attractive, hardworking candidate. And Ms. Behn’s candidacy was a mess, especially after radical comments she’d made while still a progressive organizer surfaced. In the capital of country music, she said she hated country music. In 2020 she called for dissolving the Nashville police department and wished a good morning on social media “especially to the 54% of Americans that believe burning down a police station is justified.” She posted a video mocking Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents she confronted. None of that was popular in Middle Tennessee.
So how did this become a contest? It’s an urgent question for the GOP with the midterms less than a year away. Thirty-five House Republicans in 2024 won by less than 13 points, the difference between Mr. Van Epps’s margin and Mr. Trump’s.
There will be many explanations, starting with the claim that Democratic voters were more enthusiastic, as the Democratic percentage of the vote increased in all the district’s 14counties over last November. Animosity to Mr. Trump will still motivate Democrats next year. What will motivate Republicans?
A better turnout operation won’t solve that problem. Besides, it’s likely the GOP get-out-the-vote effort for the Tennessee special election was far more extensive than Republicans can mount all across the country next November.
Some will argue that the incumbents the GOP worries about keeping in office will have an advantage that Mr. Van Epps didn’t as a newcomer to the seat. This is true. But there are limits to incumbency’s power. Nearly every election is to some degree about change, and this is usually all the more true for midterms.
Others will argue that Ms. Behn got flooded with money in a way that will be hard for Democrats to replicate nationally next fall. Maybe. But outside Republican groups spent $3.1 million on Tennessee ads while Democrats spent $2.3 million. And Democratic fundraising nationally for their Senate and House campaign committees is picking up. More money won't hurt, but the GOP can’t count on a huge spending advantage to overcome its challenges.
All these explanations for Tennessee try to avoid the difficult problem facing the party: the president’s approval rating. In the RealClearPolitics average, it’s 42.4%. In Gallup, it’s 36%. Both are the lowest of his second term.
The Gallup poll details who has lost confidence in Mr. Trump. Among Republicans, his approval dropped from 91% in November 2024 to 84% last month. Among independents, it has dropped by double digits, from 42% in November 2024 to 25% today.
