My first column of the New Year looks back at the old—specifically at my predictions from a year ago on what 2024 would hold. I got a bit over a 70% success rate.
What I got right: The war in Ukraine is stalemated. NATO’s European members increased aid to Ukraine and their military budgets. Congress approved security assistance to Ukraine and Israel. The Israel-Hamas war dragged on while the Israel Defense Forces occupied Gaza. The Houthis kept attacking Red Sea shipping, creating a substantial effect on world trade.
Iranian surrogates continued attacking U.S. forces in the Middle East. China increased pressure on our allies in the Pacific, yet it didn’t invade Taiwan.
The S&P 500 was up. The economy grew by more than 2%. Border crossings lowered, dropping from 243,399 encounters in November 2023 to 94,190 this November.
Pope Francis kept shaking things up—even at Christmastime with the Vatican’s display of a kaffiyeh Nativity scene.
Donald Trump, while winning the Iowa caucuses in a less-than-convincing fashion (51%), eventually ground down Nikki Haley. The general election was the “chaotic, nasty mess” I predicted. Democrats counted on the former president being convicted and inflation moderating. Republicans counted on lawfare rallying support for Mr. Trump and President Biden’s age and mental capacity becoming an issue. (Did it ever!) The Supreme Court said Mr. Trump wasn’t immune from prosecution for “private conduct,” only for official presidential actions.
Mr. Trump won re-election. The GOP flipped the Senate, but the party lost some winnable seats. Voters ousted progressive prosecutors, including George Gascónin Los Angeles.
In a real surprise, my picks for NFL most valuable player, best picture, best actor, best TV drama and best album were all correct.
What I got wrong: No border legislation passed. Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t pushed out. Hezbollah didn’t restrain itself. The S&P rose much more than I predicted. Ms. Haley didn’t win New Hampshire. Mr. Trump won a plurality of the popular vote, albeit by a margin of only 1.5 points. The House didn’t go Democratic. No third party made the difference in a battleground state. None of the seven battlegrounds came within 25,000 votes. Linda Yaccarino remains Twitter CEO. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce didn’t get married. Michigan—not Texas—was college football champion.
So what about my 2025 predictions? Congress approves two reconciliation packages, one for immigration and another to extend Mr. Trump’s tax cuts. Immigration passes first. Tax cuts take time. Mr. Trump doesn’t get more than one of his promised new tax cuts on tips, overtime pay and Social Security.
Mr. Trump’s deportation of violent criminal aliens will be popular, though not easy as progressive state and local governments throw up roadblocks. Attempting to deport illegal immigrants who have otherwise kept their noses clean will be highly unpopular. The courts sustain birthright citizenship.
At least one of the incoming president’s controversial nominees—Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Kash Patel—doesn’t make it. Speaker Mike Johnson is re-elected, though it’s ugly. Twenty-five or more House Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling, forcing Mr. Trump and GOP congressional leaders to negotiate with Democrats this spring.
While a useful exercise, the Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy Department of Government Efficiency doesn’t come up with anything close to $2 trillion in spending cuts. The three amigos—Don, Elon and Vivek—fall out.
There’s a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy. The GOP wins either the Wisconsin or Pennsylvania supreme court contest this spring, but not both.
Mr. Trump presides over a groundbreaking Israel-Saudi Arabia peace deal. It isn’t enough to save Mr. Netanyahu, whose unstable coalition government finally collapses. There’s no immediate cease-fire in Ukraine as Vladimir Putin stalls for time. Friedrich Merz becomes Germany’s next chancellor. Canadian Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The president-elect’s imperial dreams aren’t realized: Canada doesn’t become a state, Denmark won’t sell Greenland and Panama declines to return the canal.
