Donald Trump made the phrase “peace through strength” a staple of his campaign. Ronald Reagan used it as a rallying cry in 1980 after the weakness of the Jimmy Carter presidency. It’s an equally fitting response to Joe Biden’s timid, clumsy foreign policy.
But some Republican neo-isolationists reject the projection of American power abroad through allies and a global military presence, decrying this as war-mongering. “Come home America” is their cry, as it was the left’s a half-century ago. And they believe a majority of Americans, including the president-elect’s new coalition, are on their side.
New polling says otherwise. On Friday, military leaders, defense-industry officials, tech executives, national-security experts and lawmakers will gather at the 40th president’s library in Simi Valley, Calif., for this year’s Reagan National Defense Forum. They’ll hear the results of the forum’s annual survey of public attitudes about America’s role in the world.
Contrary to impressions fostered by right-wing neo-isolationists, there remains strong, bipartisan support for continued U.S. leadership in the world, increased military spending and aid to Ukraine and Israel. Americans—including Trump voters and self-identified MAGA Republicans—are also clear-eyed about who are our country’s friends and adversaries.
Asked if it is better for the U.S. “to be more engaged and take the lead” in international events or “less engaged and react,” 57% of respondents said America should “take the lead.” This includes 59% of Trump voters and 61% of MAGA Republicans. Asked whether the U.S. should “maintain military bases around the world” or “reduce our military presence overseas,” 62% of Americans, 62% of Trump voters and 63% of MAGA Republicans supported a global presence.
There’s strong support for more military spending. Seventy-nine percent of Americans want it, as well as 88% of Trump voters and 90% of MAGA Republicans. A majority of Americans (69%) worry the nation’s debt will force defense cuts. Seventy-seven percent of Trump voters and 79% of MAGA Republicans share this concern.
The public isn’t equivocal about the Ukraine war, but it is frustrated. Seventy-five percent of Americans view Ukraine as an ally and 80% see Russia as an enemy. Seventy-two percent of Trump voters and 74% of MAGA Republicans see Ukraine as an ally, and 78% of both groups view Russia as a foe. A majority of Americans—55%—support the U.S. continuing to send weapons to Ukraine.
This is down from the 59% who favored aid in last year’s Reagan Forum survey, perhaps because 41% of Americans believe Russia is winning while only 24% think Ukraine is. This could also help explain why MAGA Republicans and Trump voters are essentially split on this question—50% of both groups oppose aid and 42% support it—though strong majorities see Ukraine as an ally and Russia an enemy. There’s a lesson there for Mr. Trump. Americans want to win and don’t believe in half-hearted efforts. Mr. Biden was consistently too late and provided too little security assistance for Ukraine. The result has been a stalemate whose resolution Americans are unsure of—only 14% believe Russia will conquer Ukraine but only 17% think Kyiv will expel Moscow’s forces entirely.
Support for security assistance to Israel remains high: 54% of Americans, 67% of Trump voters and 68% of MAGA Republicans. Among Democrats, only 46% of Harris voters and of self-identified Democrats favor such aid to the Jewish state.
The neo-isolationist view that the public has soured on America’s military presence abroad and assistance to global allies is mistaken. Mr. Trump should assert the timeless truth Reagan articulated in 1980, that “war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong, but when they are weak. It is then that tyrants are tempted.”
