The midterm elections are 15 months away, and both Republicans and Democrats are showing strengths.
Republicans are stockpiling cash, courtesy of President Trump. His political-action committee has nearly $200 million on hand, and the Republican National Committee has more than $80 million. The Democratic National Committee has a mere $15 million. GOP House members in battleground districts are outraising Democrats in swing seats by about 25%.
The Senate map favors the GOP. Twenty of 22 Republican-held seats up next year are in red states, where the party should win if it doesn’t nominate scandal-ridden candidates. Two Democratic seats are in states Mr. Trump carried, five in states Kamala Harris took by single digits.
There are more Democratic House members in districts Mr. Trump won (13) than Republicans in districts Ms. Harris carried (three). The GOP’s chances will likely be improved by redistricting in Texas and Ohio.
Republicans also benefit from ineffective Democratic leadership and messaging. There’s time for those leaders to start acting smarter and improving their messaging, but the clock is running.
If New York elects socialist Zohran Mamdani mayor this November, he will be the Democratic Party’s face going into 2026. The party would be better off with a more normal Democrat dominating this fall’s election-night coverage. But that’s unlikely to happen.
On the other hand, Democrats have advantages, starting with history. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterms, going back to World War II, and it lost Senate seats 15 of 20 times. Mr. Trump’s approval in the RealClearPolitics average is a lackluster 45.9%. By 46% to 43% in the Gallup Poll, more Americans call themselves Democrats than Republicans. This erases the GOP’s 2024 lead, its first in nearly 30 years. Democrats are more energized, with 72% in the July 13 CNN/SRSS survey saying they’re “extremely motivated” to vote, compared with 50% for Republicans.
Democrats could also benefit from missteps by Republicans. Mr. Trump and his party need to drive home their successes relentlessly. When leaders fail to do so, voters often register progress then quickly move on and lose interest. It’s especially true if it doesn’t affect them personally but dominated media coverage that declined once the issue was handled.
That’s the case with border security. Voters were deeply concerned about it in the 2024 presidential election. After Mr. Trump returned to the White House and cracked down, the flood of migrants across the southwest border ceased. But the president didn’t travel to the region to draw attention to his enormous success.
Now that problem is in the rear-view mirror. Americans are paying attention to Mr. Trump’s other immigration efforts. His administration began by arresting and expelling illegal aliens who had committed crimes after crossing the border. That was popular.
But Team Trump now appears to be grabbing undocumented people indiscriminately—no matter how long they have been here, stayed out of trouble and played a constructive role in our economy. This is increasingly unpopular, especially in farm country and the construction industry, which need workers.
Approval of the president’s handling of immigration in CBS polling has fallen from 54% in March to 44% now. Republicans strongly support Mr. Trump’s initiatives; Democrats strongly oppose them. The GOP’s problem is with independents, who now oppose Mr. Trump’s approach. Their votes could well decide the midterms.
On economics, Team Trump is making the same mistake as the last administration. President Biden and big-name Democrats went across America proclaiming “Bidenomics is working.” People felt the opposite.
