The GOP’s political dashboard is flashing a yellow caution light after Republicans faced their first electoral tests of President Donald Trump’s second-term Tuesday. And within 24 hours, Mr. Trump could make it go red and set off the klaxons.
Republicans expanded their narrow 218-to-213 margin in the U.S. House by taking both vacant Florida seats. But the GOP took the First District by only 15 points and the Sixth District by 14. In November, Republican House candidates won the First District by 32 points and the Sixth by 33.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court contest was the evening’s big enchilada. There, the Democrat-endorsed candidate, Susan Crawford, won 55% to 45% over the Republican-backed candidate, Brad Schimel. Ms. Crawford ran six points ahead of Kamala Harris’s Wisconsin number last fall despite Elon Musk and GOP groups outspending Democrats $53.4 million to $45.2 million.
Republicans should be alarmed. Without Mr. Trump on the ballot, Democrats are more energized than GOP voters. That’ll likely give Democrats a turnout advantage in other special elections this year and the Virginia and New Jersey state elections this fall. If this Democratic enthusiasm edge persists in 2026, many swing-district House Republicans will be in danger in the midterms.
It’ll be even worse if Mr. Trump and Republicans repeat one of Democrats’ principle mistakes in the Biden presidency: insisting a bad economic policy is actually fine.
Constantly claiming “Bidenomics is working” didn’t square with ordinary Americans’ everyday experience. They felt President Joe Biden’s inflation when they went to the store. They saw how tough it was for their employers to navigate the rocky economy. They watched high interest rates cost friends and family the chance to own homes. Yet the bullheaded Mr. Biden kept up the happy talk.
This violated rule No. 1 of marketing: If you have a lousy product, don’t put your name on it. Unfortunately for Republicans, with Mr. Trump’s unrelenting emphasis on tariffs, he’ll own all that flows from jacking up levies on imports.
When this column was put to bed, Mr. Trump had not yet made his Wednesday tariff plan announcement. And it’s impossible to guess much from his administration’s previous talk. The president’s tariff package could be aimed at generating tax revenue, reshoring jobs or reciprocity—which depending on the details could be mutually exclusive.
On Sunday, White House adviser Peter Navarro claimed the president’s tariffs—excluding cars—would generate $600 billion in revenue this year and $6 trillion over a decade. They won’t, though they may still be the largest tax increase in U.S. history.
Then there’s the White House’s claim that a 10% tariff would create 2.8 million jobs through reshoring. Yet Mr. Trump first-term tariffs—which Mr. Biden continued—look to have destroyed more manufacturing jobs than they made.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump on Sunday said he plans to hit “every country” with reciprocal tariffs. It’s unclear if the goal is, as “reciprocal” suggests, to strong-arm countries into lowering tariffs on U.S. goods by threatening matching levies. Instead, the administration’s message sounds like: We’ll pay you back for all you’ve done to America by raising tariffs to levels never seen.
The problem for Republicans is that Mr. Trump was elected to stop inflation. A March 28 CBS News poll found that 64% of Americans already think Mr. Trump isn’t focused enough on “lowering prices,” while 55% say he’s focused too much on raising tariffs.
Most Americans believe Mr. Trump’s economic policies are either making them “financially worse off” (42%) or “about the same” (35%). Fifty-two percent feel his policies are making food and groceries prices go up, only 22% say go down. Fifty-one percent think his policies are making the stock market fall compared with 23% saying his policies are making it rise. Only 33% believe his “policies are making the U.S. job market” create jobs, while 48% say they are making it “lose jobs.”
