The criminal indictment of a former president has pushed the U.S. into unexplored territory. There is no good precedent for how this will play out. But amid the Sturm und Drang of America’s broken politics, some things are becoming clearer.
Many Democrats wisely are refusing to talk about Donald Trump’s indictment. Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierretold reporters, “It’s an ongoing case, so we’re just not going to comment.”
Democrats have good reason to maintain this posture. Commenting makes the case look more political. It also diverts attention from Mr. Trump’s crazed responses, thereby violating a cardinal political rule: Never interfere with your opponent when he’s self-immolating. And Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s convoluted indictment could well fail to produce a guilty verdict. Better then to have distance from the affair and the district attorney.
Mr. Bragg charged Mr. Trump under New York law with falsifying business records, normally a misdemeanor. But the two-year statute of limitations has run out, so the only way to prosecute Mr. Trump is by turning the charge into a felony. This requires Mr. Bragg to allege “an intent to commit another crime,” violating federal election-finance laws. (Mr. Trump pleaded not guilty to all charges.) Many experts, including on the left, think it will be difficult to prosecute Mr. Trump in state court for a supposed federal offense.
As for the politics, there is evidence it is helping Mr. Trump. A Reuters/Ipsos poll on March 20 found Mr. Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 44% to 30%. By this week Mr. Trump led 48% to 19%.
Mr. Trump’s campaign claims the indictment also produced a financial windfall—$1.5 million in the first three days after the news broke and more than $8 million in the five days after the grand jury handed up the indictment last Thursday.
It’s a real question, however, if this will last. Can Mr. Trump build a successful campaign based on victimhood and the lie that the 2020 election was stolen? Or will Republicans conclude the former president is too toxic? The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary will be next January or February, so there’s plenty of time for public opinion to bounce around. And what goes up quickly tends to fall quickly.
We’ll know sooner if the indictment donation trend is a bump or a blip. Did Trump backers keep hitting the “donate” button? And online fundraising is expensive: What did that roughly $10 million cost Team Trump? We’ll find out on April 15, when the campaign’s next Federal Election Commission filings are due.
Many Republican leaders have condemned the prosecution as political persecution. But they aren’t happy the controversy is drowning out the rest of the Republican messaging. GOP White House hopefuls reasonably despair that they’ll largely be ignored until voters tire of the drama in New York—if that happens.
The criminal indictment of a former president has pushed the U.S. into unexplored territory. There is no good precedent for how this will play out. But amid the Sturm und Drang of America’s broken politics, some things are becoming clearer.
Many Democrats wisely are refusing to talk about Donald Trump’s indictment. Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierretold reporters, “It’s an ongoing case, so we’re just not going to comment.”
Democrats have good reason to maintain this posture. Commenting makes the case look more political. It also diverts attention from Mr. Trump’s crazed responses, thereby violating a cardinal political rule: Never interfere with your opponent when he’s self-immolating. And Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s convoluted indictment could well fail to produce a guilty verdict. Better then to have distance from the affair and the district attorney.
