To do well in next year’s midterms, Republicans have to confront two messaging challenges now. Last week this column addressed the first—Medicaid. This week I’m turning my attention to the second—tariffs.
The story isn’t good for the GOP. While President Trump’s general job-approval numbers in the RealClearPolitics average on Wednesday were 47.8% approve to 49.7% disapprove, on handling the economy he was at 42.3% approve to 52.8% disapprove.
His tariff demands are weighing him down. Only 37% of Americans told a May 15 Marquette Law School poll that they approve of tariffs, while 63% disapproved. Fifty-eight percent said tariffs hurt the U.S. economy; a mere 32% believe they help. That starts to explain why stock markets drop when Mr. Trump rattles his trade saber and rebound when he walks back his tariff threats.
The president’s frenetic back-and-forth on the subject, declaring a trade war one day then postponing new tariffs the next, leaves voters confused. Early Friday, the president posted on Truth Social that discussions with the European Union were “going nowhere” and announced a 50% tariff on all EU goods. Later that morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on Fox News to reposition the comment, saying the president was trying to “light a fire” under the EU to accelerate a trade agreement. Americans are left wondering what the White House’s real policy aims are.
Another example: Last month Mr. Trump acknowledged tariffs would mean higher prices for Americans. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30,” he said, admitting they’d “cost a couple of bucks more.” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnicklater contradicted him, saying, “Don’t buy the silly arguments that the U.S. consumer pays.” Instead, “businesses and the countries” exporting to the U.S. will “primarily eat the tariff.”
Maybe these apparent flip-flops were all planned by the master of the Art of the Deal. But to many, it looks like cleanup on aisle six.
Some of the president’s messaging runs smack dab into basic economics. Mr. Trump insists American companies absorb higher import costs. In a May 17 Truth Social post, he demanded Walmart “EAT THE TARIFFS” and “not charge valued customers ANYTHING.”
Walmart’s profit margin in April was 2.75%. If it does what Mr. Trump says, it can’t break even. It can’t absorb the cost of an imported pair of kids jeans inflated by the 46% tariff Mr. Trump threatens on Vietnam, or the 37% tariff for Bangladesh, or the 32% tariff on sneakers from Indonesia that Mr. Trump proposed. Other companies are in the same pickle. Target’s most recent reported margin was 3.95%, Best Buy’s was 2.23%. The president can blast all-caps posts all he likes, but inevitably parents will be unhappy with his tariffs when it’s time to outfit the kids for school.
Americans’ everyday experiences as we shop and work are already reinforcing that we—not the exporters or importers—will pay most of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
Last weekend I went to my corner hardware store. The counterman said he was busy repricing 1,200 to 1,500 items. He said there were thousands more for which prices will go up. He didn’t like it but had no alternative.
It isn’t only neighborhood stores. Ford in early May lowered its projected 2025 profit by about $1.5 billion. Why? Higher prices for parts it now gets from Canada or Mexico with little or no tariff under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Mr. Trump negotiated in his first term. Auto workers know tariffs will raise car prices and thereby hurt sales.
New-home construction permits dropped nearly 5% in April. The National Association of Homebuilders confidence index fell to 34%, well below the 50% mark that indicates builders are upbeat about the future. This was in part because tariffs will raise prices for concrete, pipe, drywall, lumber and other significantly imported items. Rising prices usually lead to fewer home sales. Think about millions of construction workers worrying about having work—and all the home buyers and renters struggling with an even tighter housing market.
