This presidential election was one of America’s longest: Donald Trump announced his run for re-election Nov. 15, 2022, and Joe Biden announced his April 25, 2023. But with Mr. Biden’s withdrawal and replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris, it suddenly became one of the shortest. With less than 100 days before voting closes, the race is essentially tied.
The RealClearPolitics average of nine polls conducted after Mr. Biden’s exit puts Mr. Trump ahead nationally by 2 percentage points, 48.1% to 46.1%. It’s probably even closer. One poll in the RCP average was an outlier, giving Mr. Trump a 7-point lead, while the eight other surveys had him 1 point down to 4 points up.
Ms. Harris’s rise has been stunning. RCP puts her ahead in Michigan and in striking distance in all other swing states. Her favorability rating in a July 28 poll by Morning Consult was up to 50%, higher than either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump has ever been in this campaign.
Since Mr. Biden withdrew, Ms. Harris has seamlessly turned his campaign apparatus into hers. She deftly grabbed the endorsement of party leaders. Her success in fundraising and generating grassroots enthusiasm swamped both traditional coverage and social media. Her vice-presidential search has introduced interesting Democratic stars to the public. And she’s shedding some troublesome views, for instance saying that she no longer opposes fracking.
Ms. Harris has begun defining herself in appearances and ads as a prosecutor who put “murderers and abusers behind bars,” a state attorney general who took on big banks, and a vice president who forced drug companies to cut prices. All the while she attacks Mr. Trump for favoring tax cuts for billionaires and the repeal of ObamaCare.
Still, she hasn’t yet developed an effective broader narrative about the GOP ticket. Calling Mr. Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, “weird” won’t work. The attack’s substance—for example, Mr. Vance’s strange remarks about childless women—will hurt. But calling them “weird” likely won’t be enough to sway swing voters. To them, all politicians are weird.
Mr. Trump has seemed distracted by his running mate’s past statements and frustrated that the media’s attention has shifted off him with Ms. Harris’s entry. He’s been making needless mistakes. By equivocating on whether he’ll still show up to ABC’s Sept. 10 presidential debate, he wasted valuable time that he could have spent attacking Ms. Harris’s left-wing views. It left him looking weak.
But now Republicans appear to be sharpening their focus. They are pivoting to defining Ms. Harris as a San Francisco radical, starting with her statements during the 2020 Democratic primary and moving to the Biden-Harris record.
Tuesday, the Trump campaign launched a $12 million, six-state ad barrage. It led with an effective ad on border security, slamming Ms. Harris as Mr. Biden’s failed “border czar” whose policies allowed 10 million to cross the border illegally and led to 250,000 deaths from fentanyl and violent crimes committed by migrants. Her vulnerability on this issue is obvious in how friendly media that called Ms. Harris the “border czar” when Mr. Biden appointed her to that role now protest Team Trump’s using the term.
It’s one thing to run an ad, however effective. It’s another to magnify the message through earned media—i.e., independent coverage from newspapers, broadcasters and the like. That requires discipline to focus on issues so that they can’t be ignored. Republicans did it at their convention by featuring ordinary people talking about inflation, the border and the lack of respect for America around the world.
