With the election less than 70 days away and the conventions over and done, it’s worth considering the state of the presidential race.
Kamala Harris’s successful convention earned her a polling bump. She’s ahead by 1.7 points in the RealClearPolitics national average against Donald Trump and by 3.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s metric. Post-convention highs usually dip, but Ms. Harris’s probably won’t. Her upward movement stems not from momentary enthusiasm but previously dispirited Democrats coming home. In another race, that would have happened soon after the primaries ended.
Is the surge enough for her to win? Not if it doesn’t keep growing. Hillary Clintoncarried the nationwide popular vote in 2016 by 2.1 points and lost. Joe Biden led the popular vote by 4.5 points and won narrowly. We also don’t yet have a precise picture of this year’s battlegrounds, as there aren’t enough good state polls to construct a reliable average.
Unfortunately for Mr. Trump, he isn’t stalling her momentum. The former president has criticized Ms. Harris for avoiding the press since June, but on Thursday she’ll sit down with Tim Walz for an interview with CNN. Mr. Trump has complained that she benefited from “a coup,” but that’s unlikely to sway swing voters because most Americans wanted President Biden to bow out. He has labeled her a “Radical Left Marxist,” but without offering any policy details, the charge falls flat. The worst are his childish insults—calling her “stupid,” “dumb” and a “lunatic”—and offensive questions, such as “Is she Indian or is she black?” This is self-destructive.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement helps Mr. Trump, but only marginally, as his 2% to 5% of the vote will likely split between the candidates. RFK Jr. also remains on the ballot in key battleground states, and some voters who supported him may not turn out at all.
A major question looms: In their Sept. 10 debate, how will the candidates address their flip-flops? Both have shifted in ways that appeal to up-for-grabs voters. Ms. Harris has evidently changed her mind on private health insurance, fracking and the border. Mr. Trump has changed his rhetoric, if not concrete policy, on Afghanistan, abortion and immigration.
The candidates must present the other’s changes as a character indictment, while defending their own with believable, authentic explanations. Voters accept politicians who genuinely change their minds, but they need to be convinced.
The debate could be decisive, as neither candidate has a clear advantage in the race. On the big issues, Mr. Trump has voters’ confidence, though his lead is dwindling. The Aug. 13 ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found him 9 points up on handling inflation and the economy and 10 points on the border. He errs each time he doesn’t focus on these issues.
Ms. Harris, on other hand, is personally more compelling. By 30 points, voters in that same poll said she had the better “physical health to serve effectively.” Voters also believed, by between 7 and 15 points, that she’s more “honest and trustworthy,” is mentally sharper, and better “understands the problems” of people like them.
Ms. Harris’s path to victory is obvious. She should highlight her positive personal qualities while narrowing Mr. Trump’s advantages on key issues by offering moderate policies and distancing herself from the Biden administration. Voters already believe she had little influence over Mr. Biden’s decisions. She should also emphasize the topics on which she leads Mr. Trump—healthcare and abortion—and project strong leadership on issues on which he has wavered, such as supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.
